Predicted scarcity of suitable habitat for alpine plant communities in northern Japan under climate change

Question Alpine vegetation is sensitive to climate change, with shifts in species ranges, changes community composition, and an upward shift the forest limit over decades. Under habitats suitable for alpine will progressively decrease scale, making their protection conservation particularly important. In Taisetsu Mountains of Japan, has changed remarkably during last decade. The aim this study was estimate distribution subalpine types (snowbeds, shrubs, heathland/​fellfield) competing (Sasa spp. subarctic forest), while considering uncertainties future predictions scenarios. Location Mountains, Daisetsuzan National Park, Hokkaido (northern Japan). Methods We estimated habitat area each type from current maps on basis by three global models (GCMs) under two change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP8.5) using five suitability (HSMs) periods (2046–2050 2096–2100). also compared performances HSMs. Results Mean summer temperature snow-cover period had significant effects all types. did not differ markedly among GCMs RCP2.6 scenario, snowbeds heathland/​fellfield drastically decreased overall but were preserved some regions. RCP8.5 however, almost completely replaced time. Conclusions Our projections indicate that severity determine whether or remain. Monitoring dynamics endemic rare warming should be priority adaptation strategies enable timely measures.